Are you more pessimistic about the economy than most?

[AbbeyA]

It will only be a matter of time before the people who deny what is going on will truly SEE what has happened to our country. For the lucky Americans who have not been affected, count your blessings!

It's quite a statement to have all of the information posted together in one place like you did Xue, eye-opening to say the least.

[Xue]

It will only be a matter of time before the people who deny what is going on will truly SEE what has happened to our country. For the lucky Americans who have not been affected, count your blessings!

Hi AbbeyA. Thanks for starting this thread.

I hope so. I just hope and pray that people will wake up and "truly SEE what has happened to our country."

Wednesday I went to my acupuncturist to treat a condition that western medicine has not helped. Acupuncture is helping me. But my acupuncturist was complaining that there is no place for him to go scuba diving, and that he just has to jump in his pool and sit on the bottom. Then he was ranting how people who are unemployed are lazy and that if one really wants a job, that it is easy to find a good paying job. All this while I'm trying to relax while the needles are stuck in me.

Couple in Duluth SWAT Standoff Speaks

http://www.myfoxatlanta.com/dpp/news/couple-in-duluth-swat-standoff-speaks-081210

The video at the link above from the woman who was tasered is sad.

Excerpt:

"They said, 'Taser her! Taser her now!' and I got tasered right on my stomach," said Noya Lee Graber.

The Grabers said their troubles started more than a year ago when Howard Graber had a massive stroke.

Howard Graber made a good living working with computers, but now he can no longer work and the bills have piled up.

[banca rotta]

Thanks for the post on the East Point situation Xue!

It looks like those news reports we would see from a poor, 3rd world country where the UN would deliver food and water and all you see are thousands of hands grabbing for it so desperately. Now it's here!

This also is my point to the "positive thinkers" hiding behind their "change and hope".

You may still have a decent income, you may think this is not your problem, but what will happen when this mob circles your neighborhood?

As I said we used to see this sort of thing in foreign countries, now we are seeing it here. How long before we all see this outside our front doors?

I am not advocating pessimism. What I am advocating as Gerald Celente does mention is to stop sending your money to China, stop supporting the ever expanding govt and all the wars and focus more on this problem that CNBC and others keep saying is "Unexpected" when we can see it with our own eyes!!!!

[Xue]

"In this file photograph taken June 23, 2010, Frank Wallace who has been unemployed since May of 2009, displays his frustration during a rally organized by the Philadelphia Unemployment Project, in Philadelphia. "

In a sluggish economic summer, no easy fix ahead
August 13, 2010

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/In-a-sluggish-economic-summer-apf-3957573751.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

Let's face it: There is no easy or imminent fix for the flagging recovery...Businesses, meanwhile, are sitting on a record $1.84 trillion pile of cash, according to the Fed. They aren't using the money to expand operations or hire new workers because they, too, have doubts about the strength of the economic recovery.

Why the US is as busted as a busted flush
August 12th, 2010

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jeremywarner/100007268/why-the-us-is-as-busted-as-a-busted-flush/

Have a read of this terrifying article by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff of Boston University, which using recent IMF analysis pretty convincingly demonstrates that the US is as fiscally bankrupt as a busted flush. No wonder stock markets are in meltdown again.

[Hairy]

Tell me what the normal unemployment rate is Scott50?
The goal is to get back to the normal unemployment rate--not to 0 since that would be impossible.

The best we've seen is an unemployment rate of 4% in recent history (2000) with the average at around 5%.

That puts us about 5% over the norm so all we need to do is employ about 5% of the unemployed to be back to normal.

Logan

Umm, Logan . . . those numbers are a lie. They're part of the "big lie" that the economy isn't all that bad -- and the "even bigger lie" that the economy is improving.

Just for reference, what you're citing are the U3 unemployment numbers.

They don't count people who have given up searching because they couldn't find anything.

They don't count people like a former neighbor of mine who had a single part-time job -- for two to four hours, one day per week.

They don't count people who are working as a shelf-stocker at Wal-Mart instead of as an engineer.

They don't count stay-at-home moms and dads who can't find a job that would pay enough to offset the cost of daycare and taxes.

They don't count people (like myself, a few years ago) who ended up leaving the country for work because we'd been out of work for so long that nobody would hire us.

They don't count people who gave up jobhunting and went back to graduate school. Or the students who already have $40,000 in debt from undergrad but couldn't find any work, and so who went to grad school to keep deferring payments.

They don't count the welfare leeches who have never worked, never plan to, and who sit around collecting government checks . . . which are paid for by people who have jobs and pay taxes . . . and by the trillion-plus dollar annual federal deficit (being ladled on top of over twelve trillion in existing debt).

The "U6" unemployment number is closer to the truth. It includes people who are "underemployed". It's been around 17% for quite a while. But even that doesn't tell the whole truth, since it still omits certain segments of people without jobs.

And then there's the "birth-death adjustment" with which the BLS fudges the U3 numbers. BLS assumes that new companies are being formed, and people are being hired at the new companies, and so that there are lots of jobs being created by tiny little startups. Only problem is, the BLS pulls the fudge factor out of their stats only once a year (used to be twice, but last year they didn't do it in the summer, and I haven't heard of them doing it this year). This year's un-adjustment back in February caused an instantaneous drop of over 800,000 jobs that they'd been claiming throughout all of 2009 had been "saved or created". But the unemployment rate magically didn't change when they admitted there'd been 800,000 fewer jobs created last year than they thought.

I'm a member on a very large general forum, one which because of its focus has a relatively high number of high-pay individuals (attorneys, airline pilots, MDs, and small business owners), along with a very broad selection of the middle class and upper middle class -- and a large segment of public employees in certain categories. The last time someone got curious and surveyed the membership, 20% were unemployed. Ignoring the public-sector workers, it was over 25%.

It's nice that you have a job. Good luck with keeping it.

[banca rotta]

Well said Hairy!

The point that Logan and others like Logan are missing is if we tell the truth on all the numbers it will help Americans make better political and financial decisions.

For years the politicians have always fudged all these numbers whether it's unemployment, inflation, debt, etc. and created an illusion that under their leadership things are better so go out and spend and rack up debt!

Too bad for Obama his lies aren't working as well as Bush's and other presidents.

There's just too much damage and much more internet based resources that's preventing the govt from keeping their propaganda going.

For instance I too was positive 2 years ago today even with all the problems until I learned that half of all dollar denominated assets are held by foreign investors. All these foreigners need to do is dump these assets and no longer accept the dollar and we will all go up in smoke in an instant!

All of Obama's propaganda and Logan's optimism just won't prevent this. If we had a production based economy instead of consumption based then I too would think like Logan. I just never knew until all this just how fragile we really are. Most Americans have no idea.

[tobee43]

while i can see being both pessimistic and positive views about whether or not the economy is on the rebound to me really doesn't matter.

facts are facts...this is an unprecedented part in our history. the media and the government have refused to call this a depression. this is a depression...if one even understood the basic principals of economics.

let's look at the facts and not guess about it.

the only one's that got stimulus monies were big business..i.e. banks etc.
the middle class has been as good as wiped out in a single blow
there are more people unemployed in the United States now than any other time in the history of this country.
there are more foreclosures in the country than any other time as well.
there are more children 1 in 4 going hungry everyday in this country.

is the economy on the upswing?.....the sooner one realizes the truth, it will be only then that we will ADJUST to these changes. i guarantee you....your house that you purchased for 750k will NEVER, EVER be worth than much and you will be a slave for the rest of eternity.

if i sound negative, it's only because i'm a realist...i see, i hear, and i think...therefore i know. i am in resolve. i am actually happy understanding the truth.

one can work 3 jobs for 40 years and in an blink of an eye; end up on the streets like we did. our home of 33 years gone with the tears...why??? did we go to paris...or own a flat screen 50 inch tv...NO...sorry, i got sick...we lost our jobs...good high management jobs we had for years. struggled to get our kids through college...looking forward to retirement that has now all been ripped away...

i still will pray daily and hope that things get better...but it will not be for years...and years promise...so for all those that think it's getting better think again and look at the facts and figures..the TRUE ones. not just in YOUR home...but be mindful of your neighbors as well.

[banca rotta]

The unemployment was actually higher during the 30's but we are fast approaching those 1930's numbers and will surpass them due to the other things you mention such as the high foreclosures and all the bank failures that will accompany all the defaults.

Things will certainly get better tobee43, but this all depends on how we define better.

To the people having 2 BMW's and 5 HD TV's is their definition of a better life and things won't be better for you.
To most civil servants working for 20 years and having the taxpayers in a shrinking tax base support them for another 40 years I'm afraid things won't be better for these folks and others depending on any govt services including bailed out banks.

We are pretty much witnessing an end of the age of excess and it's hard for most people to cope with it. No one wants to let it go but it's going, going, gone!

[tobee43]

banca, your words ring of truth.

i'm not trying to sound "bitter". we have never felt compelled to "keep up with the jones" per sa.

however, our society has dictated to us and our children and THEIR child, what we were to "aim" for during one's life time.

i believe it was called....appropriately: "THE AMERICAN DREAM".

the old adage of the higher you are the harder you fall has vastly become a reality for many. LOL!! good for us, i suppose, that we were fairly well down on the ladder rung!!

personally for us, as everyone has their own story...we kept life simply...no fancy cars, boats, jewelry, eating out..EVER...(my DH thinks everyone spits in his food...LOL!!!!)...like i don't????...just a nice roof over our heads...a movie once in a while...and special 25 year wedding cruise...etc.

as i said we are in resolve, happy, and ready to move into the twilight to "go to where no man has gone before"...LOL!! because while i do understand things will get better...there will be just another type of defining what "better" is?

[banca rotta]

Here's an economist explaining what we are going through and what's to come and he makes more sense to me then anything I heard to date.

http://www.financialsensearchive.com/Experts/2010/Wiedemer.html

[Xue]

Hi banca rotta.

Thank you for posting the link about "Aftershock: Protect Yourself and Profit in the Next Global Financial Meltdown".

Jobless millions signal death of the American dream for many
Even the criminals have fallen on hard times in America's poorest city as the long-term unemployed struggle to keep a grasp on normality

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/aug/15/jobless-millions-death-american-dream

America appears to be a society splitting down the centre, shattering the middle class that long formed the cultural bedrock of the country and dividing it into a country of haves and have-nots...Yet to listen to America's politicians many would think recovery is just a matter of time. Yes, they say, the recession has been hard, but America will pull through and everything will be as it once was...Joblessness has taken hold in America, with the numbers of long-term unemployed reaching levels not seen since the Depression of the 1930s. The figures are frightening and illustrate a society that remains in deep trouble...The headline jobless figure of 9.5% is bad enough but does not begin to convey the problem as it fails to measure those who have stopped looking for work...Though corporations, especially in the banking sector, are posting healthy profits, they are not hiring new workers.

Here is an interesting comment:

OK, I get it.

At first I read some of these posts and I couldn't understand how any American, at least any American who thinks, could possibly distance himself so completely from what is happening to so many of his countrymen and women.

Of the number of unemployed in America, there are bound to be some that are just lazy, feckless souls who simply do not want to work. And there will be some who do want to work; and some who have good luck; and some who have bad luck. As in any given situation, we have a broad range of experience.

Here, however, all evidence points to the fact that a large, significant number of unemployed people in this economic crisis not only want to work, but have a lifetime of work experience behind them. Moral issues aside for a minute, how could anyone, even if they are not actually prepared to empathise with the plight of the newly impoverished, could not at least see a potential parallel to their own life?

The answer is fear. That's what I now understand. How much easier it is to assume that the middle aged man or woman who suddenly faces homelessness is there because (a) they were never good at their job; (b) they don't really want to work; (c) they never bothered to seek retraining; (d) they were just fat cats who were over-paid and unskilled; and even (e) they're not that smart.

How much easier if you can convince yourself that these newly destitute are in no way anything like you. If you can convince yourself that you are different from them, then you have nothing to fear. Cancer, of course, always happens to other people.

It seems to me that Roosevelt was right. We really do have nothing to fear but fear itself. Fear makes people act out in all kinds of crazy ways, denial being just one of them.

--Frites

I am greedy, selfish, and jealous and I try desperately to be loved by all. I am thinking day and night of how to make myself so important that it will force people to think only good about me. I am sorry, but it's true that I always want to be in the right.

I came to the conclusion that whatever I say, I say for only two reasons:

1. To create sympathy for myself.
2. To show how important I am.

--Lajos Egri

[Xue]

Making Ends Meet in the Great Depression

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/02/garden/02depression.html

Can A Family Of Four Survive On A Middle Class Income In America Today?

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/can-a-family-of-four-survive-on-a-middle-class-income-in-america-today

Even Tony Robbins Is Warning That An Economic Collapse Is Coming

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/?s=tony+robbins

[JakeSmithson]

The economy is going to get a lot worse and I don't see a recovery any time soon. My husband and I, both college educated (which means diddly anymore) are in our late 40's. He falls into the "they won't even hire me at Krispy Kreme and I have a degree in economics." He's applied to over 150 jobs since May of '09 and has pretty much given up.

We tried to sell our house and wound up taking it off the market when everything crashed in '08. We've had several top realtor's, in our area, tell us that they expect home prices to continue to drop well into 2011 and into at least early 2012. Right now, approximately 25% of residential mortgages are already under water.

The oval office is handing us a bunch of lies regarding 'recovery.' The Federal Reserve's beige book report came out last week with some current percentages and predictions.

Commercial Foreclosures currently at 8.79%, predicted to rise to 14.79%
Residential Foreclosures currently at 11.40%, predicted to rise to 19.40%
US GDP currently at 1.60%, predicted to drop to -1.58%

I'm thinking that if the fed is predicting residential foreclosures to rise above 19%, then I expect that number to be even higher, mostly because I can't help but think that the fed is trying to be conservative.

I just read that according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, approximately 1 in 10 residential mortgages are behind by 1 or 2 months.

We're already seeing municipalities and states struggle because of the decrease in property taxes coming in because of the current rate of foreclosures. Imagine what that will be like when residential foreclosures reach 20%. It's not going to be pretty...and that doesn't include the increase in commercial foreclosures.

I'm not a doom & gloomer, but you can't deny what's happening out here in the real world.

[alexloramer]

I know I am not. It will rebound. I don;t think that any economic policy is really going to save it though. It's global so how does a policy in the US solve all the problems. It might help a little but it will just take time.