The Recession Is Over?

[Xue]

So I'm trying to figure out what's next for me this year and I'm so depressed with thoughts of what to do because to me, I don't know what to do...take out loans and go to school? I can't get into Harvard...

Freshmen applications to selective area colleges surge

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/24/AR2010012401624.html?hpid=topnews

I know pharmacists that are out of work and medical sonographers that can't get jobs. Even nursing is not the recession proof field it's cracked up to be.

It's just a depressing, rainy day here in Georgia.

If you talk to recruiters in the business, the pharmacist job market
is drying up rapidly in many areas such as large cities of the
northeast...My store closed due to volume issues, and ive been out of
work for no less than 2 months, and not because i’m being picky
either.

I live in a Mid Atlantic state and its a large metropolitan area, The
major chains in area have frozen staffing at current levels or are
decreaing them and freezing all new hires as well. This current crop
of new grads at one large pharmacy school have a close to 40 percent
unemployment rate. at this point in time i am lookin at the
unpalatable option of living far away from home to work. Even the mail
order operations which i have 2 close by arent hiring , which in
itself is unusual, they ALWAYS were before, so ill tell all you folks
out there who say it cant happen, IT CAN!

Wal-Mart Cuts About 11,200 Sam's Club Staffers

http://www.newsnet5.com/money/22327187/detail.html

Harley Davidson laying off workers

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/markets/news/article.cfm?c_id=62&objectid=10622049

Rise in jobless claims

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Rise-in-jobless-claims-apf-3027105474.html?x=0

Kiss Our Police Officiers Goodbye.....

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=331384&t=01002130057764754273

If you want to drive a society into social disorder, simply remove social controls and watch anarchy emerge quickly, very quickly......anyone remember New Orleans after Katrina?????

Hoschton Georgia Dissolves Police Department

160 Cleveland firefighters, police officers and emergency medical technicians on Monday.

The Boston Police Department could be forced to lay off as many as 200 police officers because of cuts in state funding,

Tulsa Police Chief Ron Palmer gave 155 officers pink slips today, amid city budget problems.

Few Toledo residents say they're optimistic the city will remain safe in the wake of layoffs that have put 75 police officers out of work.

More than 20 percent of Manteca's police force could soon be forced off the streets due to budget cuts

Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg acknowledged that for the first time in nearly 30 years the city might have to lay off police officers to help balance the budget.

Taking one of the most drastic steps yet in their efforts to solve Nassau County's fiscal crisis, county officials said today that they would push to lay off 207 police officers to help close a budget gap.

Major changes are coming to the Peoria Police Department now that there will be 40 less positions in 2010.

[lrprn]

You can't expect that things will always remain in place on the employment front without ever changing. For example, ask the people who made 8-track tapes how they felt about cassette tapes coming along. Ask the people who made cassette tapes how they felt about CDs coming along. Ask the people who made CDs how they felt about online music file downloads coming along.....the list of ongoing employment market changes goes on and on. This is nothing new, just currently magnified because our economy hit the skids due to irrational corporate and individual greed.

Police and firefighters are now losing their jobs because tax bases have been falling apart for years and "no new taxes" became the mantra in this country. I've never figured out why some people think you can keep cutting current taxes and not pass new taxes but still maintain all the crucial community services like fire and police protection at a high level. Eventually we had to hit a tipping point, and over the last few years it's arrived. Not enough money coming in = services have to be cut. Good luck, citizens.

We are now living the reality that many in our country have wanted for many decades and Congress has gone along with to keep their seats - cut current taxes, pass no new taxes, de-regulate the markets, and have less government in our lives. How do you like it so far?

[banca rotta]

I wouldn't give career advice since one size does not fit all. As far as furthering education I would only "invest" in this especially with borrowed money if you absolutely feel you will get a return on your investment.

I keep hearing those that say "a college degree is now like a high school diploma was since the job market is so tight".

This maybe true but it isn't worth doing if you can never, ever pay it back. You can't even default on this debt should something bad beyond your control happen.

Is it really an investment? I just can't answer that.


Good luck! ;)

[frogger]

I keep hearing those that say "a college degree is now like a high school diploma was since the job market is so tight".

Very few jobs available in our small town area that you can get without a college degree. You can always flip burgers or stock the shelves at Wally-World without one, but if you plan on being an up and coming employee, you really need that education.

I'm not saying that it will make you smarter (it might), but it will make you more competitive in the workplace.

[HRx]

It's a mix of different things that land folks jobs in this market. In my line of work, I see JDs, MBAs, PhDs, etc., all crying for work. Education alone will not score or guarantee you a job---it certainly helps though. But if you live in an area that's highly educated, don't count on your academic accomplishments alone.

A combination of education and desired experience is also critical. The other major component to consider is how well potential employers view the way you'll "fit" into the organization's overall culture and amongst potential peers, subordinates and leadership.

[momisery]

Yes it seems college is the new norm. Our tellers have college degrees, kinda scarey. It seems to me there has to be a better way. Decades ago business "trained" people to do jobs, today they want people to go into debt for a 4 year degree and two years of it are BS they will never use in their field. Perhaps we could simply have the first two years of college incorporated into high school. Heavens knows we waste a great deal of time in those 12 years. So, back it up to a year of preschool, the kindergarden year, then the next 12 should take you far enough along that all you need it 2 years. Or, the last two years of high school could be job training if your not going on to college. We spend so much time and waste so much money on courses that you don't really need to get a degree. The man complaint I hear is that you have to work full time if your an adult, then waste two years to get be able to work on your major.

[banca rotta]

Very few jobs available in our small town area that you can get without a college degree. You can always flip burgers or stock the shelves at Wally-World without one, but if you plan on being an up and coming employee, you really need that education.

I'm not saying that it will make you smarter (it might), but it will make you more competitive in the workplace.

I know I agree with you. I feel it's better to flip burgers 60 hours a week with no student loan debt then to get a "good paying job" with 100k in student loan debt.

It's funny how the economy is evolving. It's looking more and more like starting a business is becoming less risky then going to school, getting good grades and getting a job.

It's better to take that risk then to flip burgers or be a debt slave or even worse, both.

[Tom_Mi]

As long as China manufactures EVERYTHING but food/medicine, America will continue its proud march toward 50% unemployment.

Simple demographic arithmetic, in my opinion.

[WhatMoney]

As long as China manufactures EVERYTHING but food/medicine, America will continue its proud march toward 50% unemployment.

Hate to break the news to you, but Chinese manufactured drugs are becoming more and more common in the USA. In addition China provides the raw ingredients worldwide for many drugs. Taken any Vitamin C lately? 98% chance the ascorbic acid powder was manufactured in China. It is one reason why Vit. C price has tripled in the last 20 years.

And I just bought a jar of dill pickles, Made in India. I hope they boiled the water in the jar.

[mtbc]

Community colleges can sometimes be very cheap, depending on local employment initiatives, your financial situation, etc. Also, some states actually run apprenticeship programs with local employers. Perhaps there's something you can start to get off the ground with self-employment, too. Just some thoughts.

I don't expect the job market, or the economy in general, to be bouyant for a long time yet.

[banca rotta]

As long as China manufactures EVERYTHING but food/medicine, America will continue its proud march toward 50% unemployment.

Simple demographic arithmetic, in my opinion.

It's true about our 50% unemployment rate and we are already halfway there now partly due to China taking away jobs.

Once we reach that point however the Chinese will head towards 50% or higher UE since most of what we buy from them are discretionary items.

Discretionary is the first to go with UE rates that high. We will buy food, clothing & shelter (hopefully) and China will collapse as well since there's no one on earth left to buy flat screen TV sets and laptops.

After the above happens (and yes it will ) we will learn from it, rebuild and be better then ever.

[justbroke]

I'm thinking of buying one of the Shuttles and launching myself into space. Any one want to join me?

[WhatMoney]

It's true about our 50% unemployment rate and we are already halfway there now partly due to China taking away jobs.

Once we reach that point however the Chinese will head towards 50% or higher UE since most of what we buy from them are discretionary items.

Discretionary is the first to go with UE rates that high. We will buy food, clothing & shelter (hopefully) and China will collapse as well since there's no one on earth left to buy flat screen TV sets and laptops.

Nothing could be further from the truth. See article below. Grains and commodities are not discretionary items. China will not collapse because there is an entire world for them to sell their products to - an increasing wealthy world. Americans need to face reality - they are no longer the center of the world.

China provides all our essentials, except food and shelter. And they also provide building materials for shelter and many raw products used in food production.

You need a new toaster - your old Made in America toaster from the 1970's finally burned out. You can buy a Chinese assembled toaster for $6. Or you can try to find an American made toaster...for $100. First, there are no American made toasters - and second no one in their right mind would pay $100 for an item that is no better than a $6 item.

I just replaced my Japanese made microwave oven, which lasted 19 years and cost me $150, with a FAR SUPERIOR Korean designed microwave oven assembled in China, which cost me $80. I looked for an American made microwave oven, but there is no such thing, and if there was it would cost $500, and probably fall apart after 5 years. I consider my microwave an essential item.

In Recession, China Solidifies Its Lead in Global Trade
written by: David Barboza, 14-Oct-09

SHANGHAI - With the global recession making consumers and businesses more price-conscious, China is grabbing market share from its export competitors, solidifying a dominance in world trade that many economists say could last long after any economic recovery.

China's exports this year have already vaulted it past Germany to become the world's biggest exporter. Now, those market share gains are threatening to increase trade frictions with the United States and Europe. The European Commission proposed on Tuesday to extend antidumping duties on Chinese, as well as Vietnamese, shoe imports.

China is winning a larger piece of a shrinking pie. Although world trade declined this year because of the recession, consumers are demanding lower-priced goods and Beijing, determined to keep its export machine humming, is finding a way to deliver.

The country's factories are aggressively reducing prices - allowing China to gain ground in old markets and make inroads in new ones.

The most striking gains have come in the United States, where China has displaced Canada this year as the largest supplier of imports.

In the first seven months of 2008, just under 15 percent of American imports came from China. Over the same period this year, 19 percent did. Meanwhile, Canada's share of American imports fell to 14.5 percent, from nearly 17 percent.

Besides increasing its share of many American markets, China is increasing the value of exports in absolute terms in some categories. In knit apparel, for instance, American imports from China jumped 10 percent through July of this year - while America's imports from Mexico, Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador plunged 19 to 24 percent in each country, according to Global Trade Information Services.

Indeed, China's said Wednesday that its export slump eased in September, down just 15 percent, a strong improvement over August's decline. Economists said it was a sign of an improving global economy and renewed strength for Chinese exporters.

A similar tale is told around the world, from Japan to Italy.

One reason is the ability of Chinese manufacturers to quickly slash prices by reducing wages and other costs in production zones that often rely on migrant workers. Factory managers here say American buyers are demanding they do just that.

"The buyers are getting more and more tough in bargaining for lower prices, especially American buyers," says Liao Yuan, the head of international trade at the Changrun Garment Company, which is based in southern China and exports jeans to Europe and the United States. "They offer $2.85 per pair of jeans for a package of a dozen, when the reasonable price is $7."

Because China produces a diversified portfolio of low-priced and essential items, analysts say the country's exports can hold up relatively well in a recession. Few other countries can match what has come to be called the "China Price."

"China has a huge advantage," says Nicholas R. Lardy, an economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. "They can adjust to market changes very rapidly. They have flexibility in their labor markets. And as consumers trade down the quality ladder, China can benefit."

The expiration of textile quotas in large parts of the world this year has also allowed China to increase its market penetration.

But equally important are government policies that support this country's export sector - from Beijing keeping its currency weak against the dollar to its determination to subsidize exporters through tax credits and billions of dollars in low-interest loans from state-run banks.

The results have been impressive. All told, in the first half of 2009, China exported $521 billion worth of clothes, toys, electronics, grains and other commodities to the rest of the world.

Though that represented a 22 percent decrease from the first half of 2008, it compares favorably to other major exporters. German exports have fallen 34 percent over the same period. Japanese exports were down 37 percent and American exports 24 percent, according to Global Trade Information Services.

Trading powerhouses like Germany are suffering from weaker demand for heavy equipment, automobiles and luxury goods. But the value of exports from oil-producing countries, like Russia and Saudi Arabia, has fallen even more.

One reason is that the price of oil has plummeted from last year's record highs. But since oil is priced in dollars and the value of the dollar has fallen markedly, so have the value of American imports from these countries - over 45 percent in the case of Russia's exports to the world.

Meanwhile, American imports from Saudi Arabia have fallen 65 percent.

China's market share gains are mostly at the expense of countries like Japan, Italy, Canada, Mexico and Central America - in industries that China has long sought to dominate.

China's share of furniture imports in the United States has grown to 54 percent, from 50 percent, over the last year, while furniture exports to the United States from Canada and Italy have plunged 40 percent from a year ago. In Europe, Chinese textiles and apparel have gained market share in every major country, after the quota expiration in January. Not long ago, Italy's shoe imports were dominated by Romania; now China has a commanding share.

Japan once relied on electronics shipments to the United States, but every year for the past decade Japan has lost market share to China. This year is no different. In 1999, electronics goods from Japan made up 18 percent of America's electronics imports. Today, that figure is down to 7 percent.

China's market share has climbed 10 to 20 percent from a year ago. Together, the gains are helping China maintain its large trade surplus with the rest of the world, reviving worries about global trade imbalances - and once again putting the spotlight on China's currency, the renminbi. Specialists note, however, that much of China's gains stem from the fact that it is increasingly assembling products whose components are made elsewhere, and re-exporting them.

After letting its currency rise against the dollar, beginning in July 2005, China is once again pegging it closely to the dollar. As the dollar has fallen against other major currencies like the euro - about 15 percent since a year ago - Chinese imports have become more and more competitive.

Now, European officials are clamoring for China to reduce its flood of exports and pressing for antidumping investigations.

The International Monetary Fund is calling on China to rebalance its economy and allow its currency to appreciate against other major currencies.

The United States - which for years complained about China's weak currency and soaring trade imbalances - has largely been silent in recent months, analysts say, partly because Washington is trying to improve relations with Beijing at a time when it desperately needs China to purchase American debt.

"Obama's interest is not to push China to appreciate the currency, but to get them to pay the bills," Dong Tao, an economist at Credit Suisse says, referring to China's purchases of American debt.

For its part, Beijing worries that raising the value of its currency could be catastrophic, damaging exports and diluting the effect of the government's aggressive stimulus package.

But the country's leaders are well aware of the need to shift the economy away from heavy dependence on exports and toward stronger domestic consumption. Indeed, China is eager to move up the value chain, by selling higher-priced goods like computer chips, aircraft and pharmaceuticals - all of which would bring better-paying jobs and healthier economic growth.

Moreover, many economists say that as Chinese consumers become richer, they will buy more of their own goods. And as the dollar falls, it will make American exports more competitive globally, including in China. Those trends together could eventually help rebalance global trade - which became overly reliant on Americans buying cheap Chinese goods and China buying American debt. Right now, Beijing worries about growing trade frictions with its biggest trading partners, the European Union and the United States, and the possibility of some countries initiating protectionist measures.

Chinese exporters, meanwhile, fear that even as they gain market share the pressure to produce at low prices will hurt them and the quality of their products.

Ms. Liao at the Changrun factory says many producers are essentially scavenging to source raw material.

"Some even go to old factories to collect abandoned fabrics from old stock, so they can save two-thirds of the cost on raw material," she says. "These fabrics are in very bad shape. They won't wash, and easily wear out."

But the discounting period may be here for a while with many economists forecasting a lengthy period of slow growth in Europe and the United States.

"China is going to get stronger," Mr. Tao at Credit Suisse says. "Its competitors are getting weaker in the downturn. And the Chinese state has helped bail out some industries, like the auto industry; so in the future some new industries may emerge as exporters."

Published in: The New York Times

http://www.worldsecuritynetwork.com/...086&topicID=63

[Scott50]

As long as China manufactures EVERYTHING but food/medicine, America will continue its proud march toward 50% unemployment.

Simple demographic arithmetic, in my opinion.

consider that unemployment during the "Great Depression" NEVER reached 50%- I think it peaked at around 25% during the 1930's... Our economy has moved from primarily Agricultural to Manufacturing to more of a Innovation economy. I have friends that tell me that they have job openings but can't get qualified applicants... go figure...

[Scott50]

It's true about our 50% unemployment rate and we are already halfway there now partly due to China taking away jobs.

Once we reach that point however the Chinese will head towards 50% or higher UE since most of what we buy from them are discretionary items.

Discretionary is the first to go with UE rates that high. We will buy food, clothing & shelter (hopefully) and China will collapse as well since there's no one on earth left to buy flat screen TV sets and laptops.

After the above happens (and yes it will ) we will learn from it, rebuild and be better then ever.

actually the Chinese reliance on exports will decline. figure 1.3 billion consumers in China that should be able to consume the products that they produce.. China has rapidly growing middle class and has plenty of cash ( they hold 713 billion dollars worth of US Treasury securities) thanks to our US borrowing..