The Recovery That Isn't

[OhioFiler]

We too live in Northeast Ohio but I don't see the economy here to be as bad as many other areas of the country. There are NO signs of recovery anywhere, let alone NE Ohio. If you think things are bad here visit Detroit!

My job takes me into many of the hardest hit areas of Cleveland and the number of vacant houses is astounding but vacancies don't appear to be growing too much.

[frogger]

About 1/3 of my immediate friends and family are either unemployed or terribly underemployed. .

Same here. So many people are bringing home more money in their government check than they could make by being employeed. Spoke with a lady yesterday that worked at Wal-Mart. She was getting 22 hours a week at 7.25 per hour. Can't support a family on that.

So many people are just part time at minimum wage.

[OnTheRocks]

Most of my friends and neighbors are unemployed. For me, considering filing is an indicator that I have lost faith in the ability of the economy to sustain my finances.

[nc73]

I suppose it mainly has to do with your occupation and where you live. I still wonder how they choose to layoff. Is it the newer people that get canned first? Maybe the ones that under perform? I guess my friends and family have just been lucky. 1 or 2 were laid off but they found jobs again in no time.

[DeadManCrawling]

I think every company is different.

A 76 year old man I know was a top level employee for a distributing company he had worked at for 40 years. I don't know what his salary was, but I bet it was decent after that amount of time. He was good friends with the family who owned the distributorship.

He was laid off three weeks ago, and is still, at that age, supporting four adult children in their 40-50 year range. Terrible nightmare.

No explanation, just a call into the office and the words, we can't keep you employed.

At his age, it is doubtful he will ever attain the salary he had there, and I fear for his future, with a house full of lazy adult children. None work.

[OnTheRocks]

Where I worked they found they could hire fresh graduates that would work 60-70 hours a week for the same pay. For a young career minded person with high energy and competitive drive, it could well be worth it. The economy, even in a "secure" job, allows for employee shopping and upgrading staff depending upon the character of the employer. I understand their decision and motives, even if I don't agree with them. I was told I was not meeting expectations, but I can't and won't put in 20-30 extra hours a week. A big part of me being sacked was my attitude. If I did overtime I wanted to get paid for it. I have friends who are working for employers that value their employees, and I think the good employers deserve acknowledgment, but there are others out there that are just abusers/users of people, even when they still have the work. And then there's the good ones who just don't have the work any more, and I feel for them, especially small business.

And it hasn't all been negative either. It made me stop and analyze my life, my goals, and compare it to my future outlook. I don't know about others, but that seems to be a big part of why I am here.

[Toby629]

My DH never thought he would be let go from the company he worked for 19 yr. He was consistently their top salesperson, had won several sales awards and had been told that they hoped he would not leave their employ. He had no warning whatsoever, he went into work, they called him in and said clear out your desk you are done. He was middle management, and several other management were let go at the same time. They told him they did not like how he handled one account, just an excuse to get rid of him. Come to find out, they had just bought another company, looking to cut their costs and get rid of people who were making top salaries. They will hire younger people at half what they were paying the ones that were let go. Happens all time, after hearing the same thing from many other people that have been through this. Everyone is expendable, don't for a minute think you aren't.

[banca rotta]

It's official!!!

They are now declaring the recession over!



I think we need to start a new sticky and call it "This is your brain on drugs".

Let the great recession being over be the first story posted on it.

[justbroke]

Cool! I can start spending again! There are some houses in Detroit that I want to do some speculation on, now that the economy is back!

[HakunaMatata]

Okay, if the recession is officially over...does this mean the depression has commenced?!

[BankruptPinoy]

It's official!!!

They are now declaring the recession over!



I think we need to start a new sticky and call it "This is your brain on drugs".

Let the great recession being over be the first story posted on it.

90%??????????????????????????????????

The September Employment Rate is 90%
Written by Robert Singer

http://www.daily.pk/the-september-employment-rate-is-90-11826/

http://www.reuters.com/article/companyNewsAndPR/idUSN1214727320091012

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON, Oct 12 (Reuters) - The worst U.S. recession since the Great Depression has ended, but weak household spending as the labor market struggles to create jobs will slow the pace of the economy's recovery, according to a survey released on Monday.

The survey of 44 professional forecasters released by the National Association for Business Economics, also known as the NABE, found that 80 percent of the respondents believed the economy was growing again after four straight quarters of declines.

"The great recession is over," NABE President-Elect Lynn Reaser said.

"The vast majority of business economists believe that the recession has ended, but that the economic recovery is likely to be more moderate than those typically experienced following steep declines."

Recessions in the United States are dated by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The private-sector group, which does not define a recession as two consecutive quarters of decline in real gross domestic product, often takes months to make determinations.

The recession that started in December 2007 is the longest and deepest since the 1930s. It was triggered by the U.S. housing market's collapse and the ensuing global credit crisis.

While the economy is believed to have rebounded in the third quarter, analysts believe that ordinary Americans will probably mot see much difference as unemployment will remain high well into 2010, restraining consumption.

"We don't necessarily expect the U.S. economy to fall into a double-dip recession. This time round, consumers will be reluctant to join the party," said Paul Ashworth, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics in Toronto.

The NABE survey, conducted in September, predicted real GDP growth expanding at an annual pace of 2.9 percent over the second half of this year. Output for all of 2009 is expected to contract 2.5 percent and next year, rebound 2.6 percent.

Much of the anticipated recovery was seen driven by businesses rebuilding their inventories after aggressively reducing unwanted stockpiles of unsold goods to match weak demand.

HOUSING PRICES TO HIT BOTTOM

Investment in the residential market would also add to growth, with the majority of the survey's respondents convinced that the housing market downturn, which has lasted more than three years, was close to coming to an end.

About two-thirds of respondents believed house prices will reach a bottom this year. The survey found that high house prices would not pose a threat to the sector's recovery.

The survey predicted that the unemployment rate will rise to 10 percent in the first quarter of 2010 and edge down to 9.5 percent by the end of that year. The labor market was not expected to regain most of the jobs destroyed in the recession until 2012 or beyond.

The weak labor market will continue to weigh on consumer spending, slowing the recovery. The jobless rate climbed to 9.8 percent in September -- a 26-year high -- from August's 9.7 percent.

Labor market slack, combined with weak wage growth, meant inflation would not be an obstacle to the economic recovery and the Federal Reserve will not be under pressure to raise interest rates, the survey found.

"With improving credit markets, the U.S. economy can return to solid growth next year without worry about rising inflation," Reaser said.

The U.S. central bank was seen leaving its overnight benchmark lending rate near zero until late next spring, followed by measured increases that would take the rate to 1 percent by the end of 2010, the survey showed.

Despite signs of improvement in the financial markets, most respondents believed that it would take some time for them to return to normal. Only 29 percent believed this would happen in the second half of next year.

Respondents also expected the U.S. dollar to weaken further this year and into 2010, but did not see this contributing to a narrowing of the country's trade deficit as the economic revival stimulates demand for imports.

The dollar has lost about 5.8 percent of its value against a basket of currencies .DXY so far this year, largely because of worries over the government's growing budget deficit and expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates at super-low levels for a while.

[BankruptPinoy]

Okay, if the recession is officially over...does this mean the depression has commenced?!

As a president elected in a landslide by young and old, rich and poor, Democrat and Republican, black, white, Hispanic, Asian, Native American, gay, straight, disabled and not disabled, Obama will lead the nation out of its unsustainable American Dream and into a great new depression.

-- Robert Singer

http://waronyou.com/topics/the-september-employment-rate-is-90/

[BankruptPinoy]

I've never heard of Robert Singer until just a bit ago when I started researching what banca rotta wrote. I could not believe my eyes that we are being told that the recession is over. I wonder, like HakunaMatata, does this mean that the greatest depression has started?

[momisery]

I live in MO, and many of the banks have laid off, the mortage companies have closed. MAcy laid off about 5 months back. Everyday I hear more and more about people losing their jobs. Hubby was laid off in the car business, and all he has found is TOTAL commission work, and the pay is so back that most weeks he can still draw his unemployment. I cover his healthcare where I work. My job cut back by 5% in hours to cut our pay. Recently they gave it back to us, but we are still downsized. I don't know of anyone that is not effected by this mess.

[frogger]

What they're trying to do is change perception. When the country believes that it's doom and gloom, that's the way they will act. The current administration has its talking points that it gives to the media, and the media run with it, regardless of fact or fiction.

This recession may be over, however I am inclined to agree that when it ended, the depression started.

This party's just getting started......