December 16, 2010
The extension for unemployment benefits that is part of the compromise tax deal is good news for many of the unemployed, but it won’t provide aid to anyone who’s been out of a job over 99 weeks.
As we’ve explained previously, the extension worked out by President Barack Obama and congressional Republicans only lets unemployed workers continue to draw benefits for up to 99 weeks, it doesn’t extend the duration of the program beyond that point. Those who have exhausted all currently available benefits — so-called 99ers — won’t be granted an extension.
That’s a concern because the number of 99ers may be increasing. The number of people who have received their final payments from extended-benefits programs this year through the end of October — the most recent month for which data are available — is over one million, and that number has been steadily increasing.
Separately, the Labor Department reported that nearly 10% of the unemployed in the third quarter of 2010 — more than one million people — had been out of a job and looking for work for about two years or more. Meanwhile, initial claims for unemployment have been trending lower recently, but the biggest surge came in early 2009. The peak of 643,000 claims in a single week came in March of last year, 89 weeks ago. Anyone still unemployed since that peak is likely to run out of benefits soon, if they haven’t already.
The reason some may have already exhausted their benefits is that the name 99er is a bit of a misnomer. Indeed 99 weeks is the longest possible duration of unemployment, but the total varies by state depending on the unemployment rate and whether the state participates in certain voluntary programs.
Before extended benefits expired on Nov. 30, just 24 states and Washington D.C. offered the full 99 weeks. Six states offered benefits for 93 weeks, five had them for 86 weeks, nine allowed 73 weeks, and five states were at 60. Mississippi was alone in offering 79 weeks. (The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities has a map here, but be warned it could change with the release of state unemployment data Friday.)
There’s a hearty debate over how long to offer unemployment benefits, with some arguing that longer durations inflate the numbers of the unemployed as people who otherwise would leave the labor force remain in it to continue to collect benefits. But it’s clear that the most recent recession has created long-term unemployment problems not seen in at least a generation.
As of November, more than 4.2 million people were unemployed for longer than 52 weeks, according to Labor Department data. Meanwhile, nearly a third of the unemployed had been out of a job for more than a year. Those figures are far and away the highest they’ve been since the Labor Department began tracking them in the mid 1970s.
The recession has left the U.S. with an extremely large hole in the labor market, and economists expect the climb out will be slow. In the latest Wall Street Journal forecasting survey, the respondents on average still expected the unemployment rate to be at 9% at the end of next year. That’s bad news for the long-term unemployed. The issue has become such a concern that the Labor Department will next year begin tracking unemployment for up to 5 years.
The extension for unemployment benefits that is part of the compromise tax deal is good news for many of the unemployed, but it won’t provide aid to anyone who’s been out of a job over 99 weeks.
As we’ve explained previously, the extension worked out by President Barack Obama and congressional Republicans only lets unemployed workers continue to draw benefits for up to 99 weeks, it doesn’t extend the duration of the program beyond that point. Those who have exhausted all currently available benefits — so-called 99ers — won’t be granted an extension.
That’s a concern because the number of 99ers may be increasing. The number of people who have received their final payments from extended-benefits programs this year through the end of October — the most recent month for which data are available — is over one million, and that number has been steadily increasing.
Separately, the Labor Department reported that nearly 10% of the unemployed in the third quarter of 2010 — more than one million people — had been out of a job and looking for work for about two years or more. Meanwhile, initial claims for unemployment have been trending lower recently, but the biggest surge came in early 2009. The peak of 643,000 claims in a single week came in March of last year, 89 weeks ago. Anyone still unemployed since that peak is likely to run out of benefits soon, if they haven’t already.
The reason some may have already exhausted their benefits is that the name 99er is a bit of a misnomer. Indeed 99 weeks is the longest possible duration of unemployment, but the total varies by state depending on the unemployment rate and whether the state participates in certain voluntary programs.
Before extended benefits expired on Nov. 30, just 24 states and Washington D.C. offered the full 99 weeks. Six states offered benefits for 93 weeks, five had them for 86 weeks, nine allowed 73 weeks, and five states were at 60. Mississippi was alone in offering 79 weeks. (The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities has a map here, but be warned it could change with the release of state unemployment data Friday.)
There’s a hearty debate over how long to offer unemployment benefits, with some arguing that longer durations inflate the numbers of the unemployed as people who otherwise would leave the labor force remain in it to continue to collect benefits. But it’s clear that the most recent recession has created long-term unemployment problems not seen in at least a generation.
As of November, more than 4.2 million people were unemployed for longer than 52 weeks, according to Labor Department data. Meanwhile, nearly a third of the unemployed had been out of a job for more than a year. Those figures are far and away the highest they’ve been since the Labor Department began tracking them in the mid 1970s.
The recession has left the U.S. with an extremely large hole in the labor market, and economists expect the climb out will be slow. In the latest Wall Street Journal forecasting survey, the respondents on average still expected the unemployment rate to be at 9% at the end of next year. That’s bad news for the long-term unemployed. The issue has become such a concern that the Labor Department will next year begin tracking unemployment for up to 5 years.
Closed November 2010
341 Meeting 12-16-2010 
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