Unemployment Discussion

[WhatMoney]

If we had self sustaining job and wage growth I too would be cheerleading as you are.

I am not "cheerleading", you got me confused with George Bush in college.
I am the messenger - why attack the messenger? You only want to read about the bad news? I should edit out the good news?

We have a stimulas based recovery and when the stimulas ends so does the so called job recovery. A lot of these newly created jobs are census workers. How is this good for anyone in the long term? They will get the boot by labor day.

True about the census jobs going away. But at least in April most of the NEW jobs were NOT created by census workers. Maybe you missed this part of the BLS report:

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 290,000 jobs in April, its largest monthly gain since March 2006, handily beating expectations of an 187,000 increase.
More importantly, private payrolls, which exclude the influx of temporary government census workers, rose by 231,000 and were well above the consensus estimate of an 87,000 increase.

Innovative small businesses are what creates most of the jobs and products we all love and they are a dying breed. The dems and repubs have been killing them for the longest time and this criminal gang in control now is driving the last nail in the coffin.

I think the loss of large scale manufacturing jobs being shipped to other countries for the last 25 years is a more fundamental problem. The government supports small business formation, despite your claims.

[Xue]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ynews/ynews_ts2049

I Need A Freakin Job

http://video.yahoo.com/watch/7484234/19821173

[banca rotta]

Well Obama did inherit Bush's mess so they should cut him some slack.

Unless we need to continue to do the census indefinitely the UE rate will rise again just in time for the elections, (not that it really came down IMO).

I will almost bet that the census counts will be messed up on purpose so congress will appropriate funds probably in the trillions just to get a recount kinda like the 2000 election. This way Obama can continue his recovery speeches until after November.

[Xue]

http://www.morningliberty.com/2010/05/16/economic-collapse-martial-law-24-experts-warn-of-2010-meltdown/

From: Tracy
Date: Sat, May 15, 2010 at 11:51 AM
Subject: Predictions for the Rest of 2010


Predictions For The Rest Of 2010

Bob Chapman
First 6 months of 2010, Americans will continue to live in the 'unreality'…the period between July and October is when the financial fireworks will begin. The Fed will act unilaterally for its own survival irrespective of any political implications …(source is from insider at FED meetings). In the last quarter of the year we could even see Martial law, which is more likely for the first 6 months of 2011. The FDIC will collapse in September 2010. Commercial real estate is set to implode in 2010. Wall Street believes there is a 100% chance of crash in bond market, especially municipals sometime during 2010. The dollar will be devalued by the end of 2010.

Gerald Celente
Terrorist attacks and the "Crash of 2010". 40% devaluation at first = the greatest depression, worse than the Great Depression.

Igor Panarin
In the summer of 1998, based on classified data about the state of the U.S. economy and society supplied to him by fellow FAPSI analysts, Panarin forecast the probable disintegration of the USA into six parts in 2010 (at the end of June – start of July 2010, as he specified on 10 December 2000

Neithercorps
Have projected that the third and final stage of the economic collapse will begin sometime in 2010. Barring some kind of financial miracle, or the complete dissolution of the Federal Reserve, a snowballing implosion should become visible by the end of this year. The behavior of the Fed, along with that of the IMF seems to suggest that they are preparing for a focused collapse, peaking within weeks or months instead of years, and the most certain fall of the dollar.

Webbots
July and onward things get very strange. Revolution. Dollar dead by November 2010.

LEAP 20/20Joseph Meyer
Forecasts on the economy. He sees the real estate market continuing to decline, and advised people to invest in precious metals and commodities, as well as keeping cash at home in a safe place in case of bank closures. The stock market, after peaking in March or April (around 10,850), will fall all the way down to somewhere between 2450 and 4125 during the next leg down.

Harry Dent (investor)
A very likely second crash by late 2010. The coming depression (starts around the summer of 2010). Dent sees the stock market–currently benefiting from upward momentum and peppier economic activity–headed for a very brief and pleasant run that could lift the Dow to the 10,700-11,500 range from its current level of about 10.090. But then, he sees the market running into a stone wall, which will be followed by a nasty stock market decline (starting in early March to late April) that could drive down the Dow later this year to 3,000-5,000, with his best guess about 3,800.

Richard Russell (Market Expert)
(from 2/3/10) says the bear market rally is in the process of breaking up and panic is on the way. He sees a full correction of the entire rise from the 2002 low of 7,286 to the bull market high of 14,164.53 set on October 9, 2007. The halfway level of retracement was 10,725. The total retracement was to 6,547.05 on March 9, 2009. He now sees the Dow falling to 7,286 and if that level does not hold, “I see it sinking to its 1980-82 area low of Dow 1,000.” The current action is the worst he has ever seen. (Bob Chapman says for Russell to make such a startling statement is unusual because he never cries wolf and is almost never wrong)


Predicted in July 2007 that what was going to happen was that by mid 2010 there is going to be a crisis only comparable to the one in 1929. From October 2009 to May 2010 people will begin to see things are not working out the way the government thought. In May of 2010, the crisis starts with all its force and continues and strengthens throughout 2011. He accurately predicted the current recession and market crash to the month.

Lyndon Larouche
The crisis is accelerating and will become worse week by week until the whole system grinds into a collapse, likely sometime this year. And when it does, it will be the greatest collapse since the fall of the Roman Empire.

WALL STREET JOURNAL- (2/2010)
"You are witnessing a fundamental breakdown of the American dream, a systemic breakdown of our democracy and our capitalism, a breakdown driven by the blind insatiable greed of Wall Street: Dysfunctional government, insane markets, economy on the brink. Multiply that many times over and see a world in total disarray. Ignore it now, tomorrow will be too late."

Eric deCarbonnel
There is no precedence for the panic and chaos that will occur in 2010. The global food supply/demand picture has NEVER been so out of balance. The 2010 food crisis will rearrange economic, financial, and political order of the world, and those who aren’t prepared will suffer terrible losses…As the dollar loses most of its value, America's savings will be wiped out. The US service economy will disintegrate as consumer spending in real terms (ie: gold or other stable currencies) drops like a rock, bringing unemployment to levels exceeding the great depression. Public health services/programs will be cut back, as individuals will have no savings/credit/income to pay for medical care. Value of most investments will be wiped out. The US debt markets will freeze again, this time permanently. There will be no buyers except at the most drastic of firesale prices, and inflation will wipe away value before credit markets have any chance at recovery. The panic in 2010 will see the majority of derivatives end up worthless. Since global derivatives markets operate on the assumption of the continued stable value of the dollar and short term US debt, using derivatives to bet against the dollar is NOT a good idea. The panic in 2010 will see the majority of derivatives end up worthless. The dollar's collapse will rob US consumers of all purchasing power, and any investment depend on US consumption will lose most of its value.

Alpha-Omega Report (Trends Forecast)
Going into 2010, the trends seemed to lead nowhere or towards oblivion. Geo-politically, the Middle East was and is trending towards some sort of military clash, most likely by mid-year, but perhaps sooner…At the moment, it seems 2010 is shaping up to be a year of absolute chaos. We see trends for war between Israel and her neighbors that will shake every facet of human activity…In the event of war, we see all other societal trends being thoroughly disrupted…Iran will most likely shut off the flow of oil from the Persian Gulf. This will have immense consequences for the world’s economy. Oil prices will skyrocket into the stratosphere and become so expensive that world’s economies will collapse..There are also trend indicators along economic lines that point to the potential for a total meltdown of the world’s financial system with major crisis points developing with the change of each quarter of the year. 2010 could be a meltdown year for the world’s economy, regardless of what goes on in the Middle East.

Robin Landry (Market Expert)
I believe we are headed to new market highs between 10780-11241 over the next few months. The most likely time frame for the top is the April-May area. Remember the evidence IMHO still says we are in a bear market rally with a major decline to follow once this rally ends.

John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
In my estimation, there is still close to an 80% probability (Bayes' Rule) that a second market plunge and economic downturn will unfold during 2010.

Robert Prechter
Founder of Elliott Wave International, implores retail investors stay away from the markets… for now. Prechter, who was bullish near the lows in March 2009, now says the stock market “is in a topping area, “predicting another crash in 2010 that will bring stocks below the 2009 low. His word to the wise, “be patient, don’t rush it” keep your money in cash and cash equivalents.

Richard Mogey
Current Research Director at the Foundation for the Study of Cycles- Because of a convergence of numerous cycles all at once, the stock market may go up for a little while, but will crash in 2010 and reach all-time lows late 2012. Mogey says that the 2008 crash was nothing compared to the coming crash. Gold may correct in 2009, but will go up in 2010 and peak in 2011. Silver will follow gold.

James Howard Kunstler (January 2010)
The economy as we’ve known it simply can’t go on, which James Howard Kunstler has been saying all along. The shenanigans with stimulus and bailouts will just compound the central problem with debt. There’s not much longer to go before the whole thing collapses and dies. Six Months to Live- The economy that is. Especially the part that consists of swapping paper certificates. That’s the buzz I’ve gotten the first two weeks of 2010.

Peter Schiff (3/13/2010)
"In my opinion, the market is now perfectly positioned for a massive dollar sell-off. The fundamentals for the dollar in 2010 are so much worse than they were in 2008 that it is hard to imagine a reason for people to keep buying once a modicum of political and monetary stability can be restored in Europe. In fact, the euro has recently stabilized. My gut is that the dollar sell-off will be sharp and swift. Once the dollar decisively breaks below last year's lows, many of the traders who jumped ship in the recent rally will look to re-establish their positions. This will accelerate the dollar's descent and refocus everyone's attention back on the financial train-wreck unfolding in the United States. Any doubts about the future of the U.S. dollar should be laid to rest by today's announcement that San Francisco Federal Reserve President Janet Yellen has been nominated to be Vice Chair of the Fed's Board of Governors, and thereby a voter on the interest rate-setting, seven-member Open Markets Committee. Ms. Yellen has earned a reputation for being one of the biggest inflation doves among the Fed's top players." Schiff is famous for his accurate predictions of the economic events of 2008.

Lindsey Williams
Dollar devalued 30-50% by end of year. It will become very difficult for the average American to afford to buy even food.

Unnamed Economist working for US Gov't (GLP)
What we have experienced the last two years is nothing to what we are going to experience this year. If you have a job now…you may not have it in three to six months. (by August 2010). Stock market will fall = great depression. Foreign investors stop financing debt = collapse. 6.2 million are about to lose their unemployment.

Jimmy "Doomsday"
DOW will fall below 7,000 before mid summer 2010- Dollar will rise above 95 on the dollar index before mid summer 2010- Gold will bottom out below $800 before mid summer 2010- Silver will bottom out below $10 before mid summer 2010- CA debt implosion will start its major downturn by mid summer and hit crisis mode before Q4 2010- Dollar index will plunge below 65 between Q3 and Q4 2010- Commercial real estate will hit crisis mode in Q4 2010- Over 35 states will be bailed out by end of Q4 2010 by the US tax payer End of Q4 2010 gold will hit $1,600 and silver jump to $35 an oz.

George Ure
Markets up until mid-to-late-summer. Then "all h*** breaks loose" from then on through the rest of the year.

[MSbklawyer]

Economic Collapse – Martial Law – 24 Experts Warn of 2010 Meltdown

http://www.morningliberty.com/2010/05/16/economic-collapse-martial-law-24-experts-warn-of-2010-meltdown/

From: Tracy
Date: Sat, May 15, 2010 at 11:51 AM
Subject: Predictions for the Rest of 2010

Lyndon Larouche
The crisis is accelerating and will become worse week by week until the whole system grinds into a collapse, likely sometime this year. And when it does, it will be the greatest collapse since the fall of the Roman Empire.
Predictions For The Rest Of 2010

Ahhhh Lyndon La Douche --- I mean LaRouche

I can remember being in the 2nd or 3rd grade and sneaking up late at night and watching TV. Back then, Lyndon was running for president and he was saying that nuclear war with the Soviets was imminent. Just any day now nuclear weapons would come raining down on us and the world would come to an end and we would all starve and die --- unless we elected him.

Scared the hell out of me when I was a kid.

Is he still at it? He looked 80 or so back then and that was 40 years ago.

[Xue]

Ahhhh Lyndon La Douche --- I mean LaRouche

I can remember being in the 2nd or 3rd grade and sneaking up late at night and watching TV. Back then, Lyndon was running for president and he was saying that nuclear war with the Soviets was imminent. Just any day now nuclear weapons would come raining down on us and the world would come to an end and we would all starve and die.

Scared the hell out of me when I was a kid.

Is he still at it? He looked 80 or so back then and that was 40 years ago.

Hi MSbklawyer. I remember years ago when he would come on tv as well late at night.

What do you think about the post above? Some of those people have been saying that the USA will enter a great depression for years now.

Gerald Celente has been predicting bad times for years:

http://www.trendsresearch.com/index.htm

His online newsletter is $99 a year.

Bob Chapman's newsletter is 1-YEAR $159.95 :

http://theinternationalforecaster.com/International_Forecaster_Weekly

Gerald Celente: Crash of 2010 inevitable

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Li4HFDhz3So&feature=related

[WhatMoney]

What do you think about the post above? Some of those people have been saying that the USA will enter a great depression for years now.

I think 95% of their predictions will be wrong - as they have been for the last 50 years. In January 2011 I'll make a note to review their 2010 predictions. Of course by then they will all have revised their doomsday to 2011, and when that proves wrong, to 2012, and so on. It is what these guys do. They are mostly perma-bears or gold bugs that make their living selling doom and gloom. There is always a ready market for this, especially after a prolonged recession.

I've seen it all before - I've read the doomer books and predictions from the 1960's, the 1970s, the 1980's, and the 1990's. They are just doing what they do to earn a living. I subscribed to Richard Russell's newsletter in the early 1980's. He never changes - always misses the recovery - always predicting the great market collapse. I'm surprised the old coot is still alive - he must be in his late 80's by now. Precther is another one - his Elliott wave long term super cycles has predicted the end of the world in just a few years since the 1980's. But he keeps pulling in the new suckers that think he knows what he's doing.
As PT Barnum said...

And Today's news story, from those who do know what they're talking about:

Wed, 19 May 2010
Washington - The US Federal Reserve revised upward its forecasts for the US economy on Wednesday amid strong growth data for the first three months of the year.

The central bank predicted economic growth of 3.2-3.7 per cent this year, up from a January forecast of 2.8-3.5 per cent. Its projections for 2011 and 2012 were unchanged.

Unemployment this year will average between 9.1 and 9.5 per cent, the Fed predicted, down from a January range of 9.5-9.7 per cent.

The world's largest economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2010, according to an initial government estimate. The US jobless rate stood at 9.9 per cent in April as hiring continues to lag behind the broader economic recovery.

According to minutes released from the Fed's last meeting in April, the board found that consumer and business spending levels were "broadly consistent with a moderate pace of economic recovery." The labour market "appeared to be starting to improve."

[AbbeyA]

I will hope for the best, but expect and prepare for the worst -- heck, I'm in the middle of "worst" right now -- I'm already pretty negative about the economy as it is. I do think that those of us going through difficult times right now will be better prepared to handle what the experts predict is coming very soon. We've already learned how to pare down to the bare essentials and know that we can still survive. Those of us declaring bk now are much better prepared for what is (hopefully not) coming down the pike than those who have not been affected by the economy yet.

[BobMango]

And Today's news story, from those who do know what they're talking about:

Do they really? Today we have a big uptick in unemployment, dow index drops 327 points, 6 of the 10 primary leading economic indicators all turned south and oil dropped to a low last seen in July of 09. I don't consider any of that to be indicative of an economy poised to rebound.

The only thing I trust the current administration to do is try to put a rosy spin on everything.

[banca rotta]

I think 95% of their predictions will be wrong - as they have been for the last 50 years. In January 2011 I'll make a note to review their 2010 predictions. Of course by then they will all have revised their doomsday to 2011, and when that proves wrong, to 2012, and so on. It is what these guys do. They are mostly perma-bears or gold bugs that make their living selling doom and gloom. There is always a ready market for this, especially after a prolonged recession.

I've seen it all before - I've read the doomer books and predictions from the 1960's, the 1970s, the 1980's, and the 1990's. They are just doing what they do to earn a living. I subscribed to Richard Russell's newsletter in the early 1980's. He never changes - always misses the recovery - always predicting the great market collapse. I'm surprised the old coot is still alive - he must be in his late 80's by now. Precther is another one - his Elliott wave long term super cycles has predicted the end of the world in just a few years since the 1980's. But he keeps pulling in the new suckers that think he knows what he's doing.
As PT Barnum said...

And Today's news story, from those who do know what they're talking about:

These predictions are correct! The question is when will it start? People make mistakes by giving times such as "gold will reach $2000 by the end of the year" or "there will be a crash in 2010".

I saw them last year stating that all the banks will collapse by October 2009 but it never happened.

Yes a crash is coming so you should prepare for it. It's hard to give a time, date and year, but it's coming.

As I keep repeating all us bankrupts reached a point where we realized we were bankrupt so we filed.

You tend to be positive whatmoney but you never answer the question on how the western countries will pay down it's debt.

The next 25 or 50 years will be different then the last 50 years so you cannot go by what you heard before.

We were never in so much debt and the baby boomers were in their prime. They were making money and spending it just as fast.

Now that the boomers are reaching retirement and will have health problems due to their age just how will the generation x and y folks carry the burden especially with all the school loan debt and no job prospects?

Get ready! You cannot wish this away with happy thoughts.

[banca rotta]

A good source is I.O.U.S.A.

You should check it out on youtube.

[WhatMoney]

These predictions are correct! The question is when will it start? People make mistakes by giving times such as "gold will reach $2000 by the end of the year" or "there will be a crash in 2010".

I saw them last year stating that all the banks will collapse by October 2009 but it never happened.
Yes a crash is coming so you should prepare for it. It's hard to give a time, date and year, but it's coming.

The perma bears and doomsayers are like a stopped clock - they can be right twice a day.

You tend to be positive whatmoney but you never answer the question on how the western countries will pay down it's debt.

Well if I knew the answer I'd give Obama a ring and help him out. I'm not worried about massive long term debt. It is either never resolved, and life goes on, or it is forgiven, discharged, or devalued. Doomers have been worried about the debt for the last 35 years. They never understand that conditions can change, and their predictions of the future are only based on past trends. History shows that present trends can and are changed in the future. There are some very smart people trying to fix these problems. But the doomers always miss this - the reason they are usually dead wrong about the future.

Today is like the doomsayers in 1992 when Clinton was elected - end of the world -militant state militias preparing for civil war - all they got was Ruby Ridge, Waco, and the Tim McKay's Oklahoma bombing, until they crawled back under their rocks. They are back now - for the same wrong reasons.

The next 25 or 50 years will be different then the last 50 years so you cannot go by what you heard before.

First, I have lived the past 70 years, my first stock trade was in 1962. I don't need to read about it - I was there. And the next 50 years will be different, which is precisely why all the doomsday predictions based on the past and present will be foiled again.

Now that the boomers are reaching retirement and will have health problems due to their age just how will the generation x and y folks carry the burden especially with all the school loan debt and no job prospects?

Well, school loan debt will be forgiven for those that cannot afford to pay. And there will be millions of jobs in health care, taking care of those aging boomers. And like always, something new will come along. Or perhaps we will have a world war or plague or meteor that destroys half the population of the planet. End of unemployment problem.

Get ready! You cannot wish this away with happy thoughts.

And you naysayers and pessimists will not and have never solved anything in this world.

As Bill Clinton said in his Yale commencement speech today, "Nobody remembers the naysayers".

You may want to take the time to listen to Bill Clinton's speech to the Class of 2010 Yale graduates. Despite what you may think of him personally, it is a speech full of insights to the very folks that will be there to save your ass in the future. It is a speech every pessimist on this board should listen to.
A few quotes:

Clinton noted that scientists have concluded that human beings share between 99.5% and 99.9% of their genetic makeup, which means that only .5% to .1% accounts for our differences, physical and mental.

“My basic belief is that the only way you can make the most of the world around you is to focus on that 99.5%,” said Clinton, adding, “Our common humanity matters more.”

Clinton also pointed to the recent scientific discovery that life is possible because there is more positive matter in the universe than negative matter.

“If that is true,” he said, “it is a metaphor for how you have to live. … The mission of every citizen in the world … has to be to build up the positive and reduce the negative forces of our interdependence.”

The goal, Clinton asserted, “should be the non-zero sum game,” i.e., finding solutions to the world’s problems in which everybody wins. “You need to put the right filter on your glasses when you look into the future,” he said.

Calling pessimism a “cop out,” Clinton said, “Nobody remembers the naysayers. In the end, all that endures are the builders. And in the end, the builders are forgotten, and all that endures are the ripples of what they built.”

The video of the speech is here:

http://tpmlivewire.talkingpointsmemo...eech-video.php

[banca rotta]

Well if I knew the answer I'd give Obama a ring and help him out. I'm not worried about massive long term debt. It is either never resolved, and life goes on, or it is forgiven, discharged, or devalued. Doomers have been worried about the debt for the last 35 years. They never understand that conditions can change, and their predictions of the future are only based on past trends. History shows that present trends can and are changed in the future. There are some very smart people trying to fix these problems. But the doomers always miss this - the reason they are usually dead wrong about the future.

Exactly! It will be "forgiven, discharged or devalued"! This is exactly why there will be a collapse!!!

This isn't whatmoney or banca rotta defaulting on 30k worth of debt.

You are talking about trillions of govt debt holders who are holding this are about to get stiffed. It's the banks, insurance companies, teachers pensions funds, and the list goes on and on of those that will get stiffed.

Enough to cause about 50% unemployment.

Just imagine every bank in one afternoon closing their doors since the govt defaulted so there is a run on the banks.

If it's "devalued" then the poor that you seem to care so much for won't be able to purchase very much. They will resort to crime just to eat.

Oh well it's an answer. Now I know where you stand.

[WhatMoney]

Exactly! It will be "forgiven, discharged or devalued"! This is exactly why there will be a collapse!!!
This isn't whatmoney or banca rotta defaulting on 30k worth of debt.

You are talking about trillions of govt debt holders who are holding this are about to get stiffed. It's the banks, insurance companies, teachers pensions funds, and the list goes on and on of those that will get stiffed.
Enough to cause about 50% unemployment.
Just imagine every bank in one afternoon closing their doors since the govt defaulted so there is a run on the banks.
If it's "devalued" then the poor that you seem to care so much for won't be able to purchase very much. They will resort to crime just to eat.

Oh well it's an answer. Now I know where you stand.

Yeah Banca, I'm retired so I won't lose a job, and I have my gold and silver buried in the back yard under the veggie garden, near the hen house, next to the bunker where I've hidden the devalued cash.

You wanted an answer to the future, and I never said I wasn't prepared for the worst. But I am probably wrong. The US still has the largest nuclear arsenal, so if those Chinese don't like our devalued dollar, well they'll just have to deal with it. Remember, while the Roman Empire failed, Italy is still a nice country to live in. Don't worry - be happy.

[WhatMoney]

Just imagine every bank in one afternoon closing their doors since the govt defaulted so there is a run on the banks.

Sounds like you've been reading Harry E. Figgie books. He described just what you fear in a book called "Bankruptcy 1995: The Coming Collapse of American and How To Stop It," published in 1992. He has many quotes from the gurus of the time:

"We Are in a real sense living on borrowed money and borrowed time."
Paul Volker, Chairman of the Federal Reserve System.
Feb. 20, 1985

"The recession will be a picnic compared to where this country will be in 1997."
US Senator Warren B. Rudman, March 24, 1992.

And his introduction: "In 1995, The United States of America, as we know it today, will cease to exist. That year the country will have spent itself into bankruptcy from which there will be no return..."

Chapter 1 is called The Week From Hell. Essentially what all the doomsdayers still predict today. Of course it never happened. The economy improved, tax revenues increased, and the short term debt was reduced - right up until George W Bush spent it all in Iraq.

I have dozens of these books. They all failed to understand their projections were only that - and they could not account for the measures taken to counter the debt and recover the economy. Here we are in 2010, same predictions. "Of course this time it's different."

(BTW, the only failure in 1995 was Harry E Figgie, president of Figgie International, who lost his own company in 1994 - by listening to his own advice... should be a lesson in there somewhere. )